Sunday, July 18, 2021

Long Term Investment Strategy

๐Ÿ“Š Long-term Investment Strategy ๐Ÿ“Š
   ✅ Free working strategy series  ✅

♠️Pros can ignore within 0 seconds♥️
           (Reading time = 7 minutes )

➡️Let's begin ++

 Points to remember - 
 
 * Fix your capital
 * Duration = 5++ years
 * Allotment of capital - 5 % on each stock 
 * You should have one weekly new high screener/ scanner
 * Profit and loss only reviewed monthly. 
 * You will need GTT order (Zerodha recommended ) 
 * 'Set up' limit is 20 stocks only
 
⏩Important - 

* You will invest only in the Nifty 100 companies
* The scanner (streak app recommended) 
* You will get stocks from scanner - weekly high made stocks
* Allotment is 5 % per stock of your capital (5 x 20 =100)

⏩Entry - 

* Entry should be made at market price or limit order which ever you like 
* You will take the position only on Friday after 3 pm every Friday till 20 stocks complete
* Screened stocks only - which have made new weekly highs - strictly
* Nifty 100 companies strictly

⏩Target - 

* Twice of your stop loss (1:2)
* Use GTT order once you know your target 
* Do not change Target once set 

⏩Stop-Loss - 

* Low of previous 10 week
* Use GTT order to place stop loss 
* You can trail stop loss 

⏩Add ons - 

* You may review your portfolio on monthly basis 
* You can add multiple sectoral stocks but only from NIFTY 100
* New positions will follow same rule
* If the target is reached very early, exit the position or add new stock with same rules or keep trailing. 

⏩Important note - 

*After you complete 20 stocks in portfolio, only thing you should do is review monthly, nothing else
* Many a times you could lose faith in the process of investing in this set up
* Stick to the set up and duration
* You will be surprised to see the results
* Once you start this set up, don't mess with the targets and stop loss (trailing is allowed)
* Be patient, even if market makes correction, trust your GTT order's stop loss - don't change it or exit the setup
* If any change is made in this set up, it may produce unexpected outcomes

⏩My Views - 

• This is a back-tested strategy, 30 previous years 
• Investing is a choice - should be smartly made
• Profits will start reflecting in the portfolio slowly and steadily - but guaranteed
• Once you are done with 20 stocks the set up limit will be reached, please don't make any changes
• All the best to you - happy investing
• Remember me - when you complete the duration ๐Ÿ˜Š๐Ÿ˜Š๐Ÿ’

⏩Questions -

* If you have any doubts questions feel free to ask, every question will be answered. 

 

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#tradersheavenlearning #THL #tradersheaven #LongTermInvestmentStrategy 

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Wednesday, July 14, 2021

Cypher Pattern : Harmonic Pattern

Cypher Pattern : Harmonics
(reading time = 15 minutes)

๐Ÿ“ถ Cypher Pattern : Harmonics ๐Ÿ“ถ

+ The cypher pattern trading strategy teaches traders how to correctly trade and draw the cypher pattern. The cypher harmonic pattern can be used on its own and provide traders a profitable trading strategy.

+ It is not surprising that geometric patterns are used in trading charts. And the cypher harmonic pattern is a very good representation of that. The pattern is part of the harmonic trading patterns and is the most exciting harmonic pattern because it has the highest winning rate.

+ This is one of the few patterns not identified by Scott Carney. It was discovered by Darren Oglesbee, and though it is technically an advanced pattern formation, it is often linked with and traded together with harmonic patterns. It has particular Fibonacci measurements for every point within its structure.

+ The Cypher harmonic pattern is a reversal pattern
As other XABCD patterns, it has 4 legs
It follows strict fibonacci ratios. 

๐Ÿ”ฎ  What is the Cypher pattern? ๐Ÿ”ฎ
+ The cypher pattern is an advanced harmonic pattern that, when traded correctly, can have a truly outstanding strike-rate as well as a pretty good average reward-to-risk ratio.

+ The cypher is a five-point pattern, composed of points XABCD. It is easy to spot on a chart due to its characteristic wave-like look, displaying either rising peaks or falling valleys.

+ Traders can trade it like other harmonic patterns, by waiting for a reversal at the end and then using pending orders to profit from any potential breakout.

+ This pattern looks like the butterfly in both its construction and where it will occur (close to the end of trends).

+ However, the cypher pattern is rare and not one that shows up frequently. But don’t confuse rarity with being more powerful or profitable. 

+ It is known to have a high positive expectancy, no different than a bat or alternative bat. Just like all other harmonic patterns, the Cypher has specific rules and conditions that must be met for it to be a particular cypher pattern.

๐Ÿ“ถ How to identify the Cypher pattern?  ๐Ÿ“ถ
+ The pattern must verify a few conditions to confirm:

+ B has to retrace to an expansive range between 38.2 and 61.8 percent of XA, at least 38.2 percent, but not exceeding 61.8 percent.

+ C is an extension leg and goes beyond A – but must move to at least 127.2 percent, but it is normal for it to go as far as the 113 to 141.4 percent.

+ It is considered invalid if it moves beyond the 141.4 percent.
CD leg should break the 78.6 percent level of XC.

+ The PRZ (potential reversal zone) of D is a wide range where the price has to get to. Price can move anywhere between 38.2 to 61.8 percent.

+ This pattern works best when the market is calm. In a strong trending market, especially after the news, the cypher pattern becomes less reliable.

+ The bigger the pattern (the longer it takes to form the pattern), the stronger the support/resistance it gives.
⚠️ What does the Cypher pattern tell traders?⚠️

+ The ‘B’ Rule +

Even though not many people apply it, it is an important rule. The rule basically states that B cannot touch the 78.6 percent retracement of X to C, including the candlestick wicks.

+ Bullish and Bearish Cypher Patterns
In any cypher, points X, C and D are the most important points.

+ For a bullish cypher pattern, X should be the pattern low and C the pattern high. A bearish cypher pattern makes its high at X and its low at C.

+ In the bullish cypher pattern, the points A and C has to make successively higher highs and point D has to be above X.

+  In the bearish cypher points A and C have make successively lower lows and point D should be below X.

๐Ÿ“ถ Market Psychology ๐Ÿ“ถ

+ The cypher is a technical wave pattern in which the market is trending but it makes sharp reversals during the day.

+ The important point of the bullish cypher is that both the lows and the highs are trending upwards. For the bearish pattern, the opposite happens. 

+ If the cypher completes successfully with a reversal taking place at point D, it may eventually become a trend channel where the price moves between the highs and lows.

+ Cyphers can also appear inside price channels that are already formed.

๐Ÿ“ถ How to trade when you see the Cypher pattern? ๐Ÿ“ถ

+ While trading the cypher pattern, you will apply a set of simple rules. They will try to minimize risk and maximize profits.

+ Even though there is one more important step to learn before defining the cypher pattern trading strategy rules.

+ Step 1: Drawing Cypher patterns +

Click on the harmonic pattern indicator located on the right-hand side toolbar of the TradingView platform.

+ Identify the starting point, X, on the chart, which can be any swing low or high point.

+ Once you’ve located your first swing high/low point, follow the market swing wave movements.

+ Every swing leg has to be validated and abide by the cypher pattern forex Fibonacci ratios.

+ Step 2: Trading process +

Now that you know how to identify and qualify the harmonic cypher pattern, it’s time to trade the pattern.

+Standard methods of trading the cypher pattern include:

+ Entry point +

+ The cypher pattern may be the most exciting harmonic pattern for risk management, because it has the highest winning rate.

+  Backtesting results have continuously proven the cypher pattern a very dependable harmonic pattern.

+ Next, buy with a market order at the first candle preceding the completion of the D point at 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the XC leg.

+ Once the market touches the 0.786 level, wave D is in place, because you can’t control how far the market will go.

+ When the CD leg gets to the 78.6 percent retracement level, the cypher pattern is complete and valid.

+However, the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level of X to C also acts as the standard entry point for a valid cypher pattern trade.

+ Take profit +

There are some ways to take profit with this pattern, but the standard method is to scale out of your position at the first take profit level and end the trade at the second take profit level.

+ Take profit once you get to point A. To get to such levels, draw a Fibonacci retracement of the CD leg.

+ The cypher patterns trading method is a reversal method. Make sure you capture as much as possible from the new trend.

+  If you’re not a fan of reversal strategy, and you prefer a trend following strategy, follow the MACD trend following strategy-simple to learn another strategy. 

+ Ensure you take profits once you reach point A of the pattern, because it has conservative take profit target.

๐ŸŽฏ Why should you take profit so early? ๐ŸŽฏ

+ For the most part of the harmonic patterns, it’s best to lock in profits as soon as possible.

+ Since the cypher pattern is one of the most profitable harmonic patterns, you can give it more room for the price action to breath. You have the chance to at least see a retest of the wave A.

๐Ÿ“ถ Conclusion ๐Ÿ“ถ

We find that the rules of the Cypher pattern trading strategy is pretty much straightforward and even though it has a bigger winning ratio than the other patterns, the Cypher pattern will be detected very rarely on the chart, so we will need to take full advantage when they do show up.

#tradersheavenlearning #chartpatternseries #tradersheaven #THL  #thegartley #cypherpattern

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Wednesday, July 7, 2021

Know Sure Thing Indicator Trading Strategy

 ๐Ÿ“Š Know Sure Thing Strategy ๐Ÿ“Š
   ✅ Free working strategy series ✅

♠️Pros can ignore within 0 seconds♥️
           (Reading time = 15 minutes )

➡️ Know Sure Thing :

+ TRADER’S HEAVEN LEARNING 

(Note - you can find this indicator in many platforms in-built indicator section.) 

✅What Is the Know Sure Thing (KST)?✅

+ The Know Sure Thing (KST) is a momentum oscillator developed by Martin Pring to make rate-of-change readings easier for traders to interpret.

+ The KST is calculated by taking the simple moving average (SMA) of four different rate-of-change (ROC) periods, adding them together to come up with the KST, and creating a signal line by taking the 9-period SMA of the KST.

๐Ÿ›‘ Understanding the Know Sure Thing (KST) ๐Ÿ›‘
+ The KST indicator can be used in the same manner as many other momentum oscillators, such as the well-known relative strength index (RSI).

+ Trading signals are generated when the KST crosses over the signal line, but traders may also look for convergence and divergence with the price, overbought or oversold conditions, or crossovers of the center line.

+ Many traders combine the KST indicator with other forms of technical analysis to maximize their odds of success.

+ For example, traders may look at other non-momentum indicators, chart patterns, or candlestick patterns to help in their decision-making.

๐ŸŸฉ Example of KST ๐ŸŸฉ

+ (please refer example)
+ Let's take a look at an example chart:
In the example, the KST indicator reached highly overbought conditions in early February and eventually experienced a crossover, which generated a well-timed sell signal.

+ The indicator also crossed over in late February, mid-March, and mid-April with limited success, but the key is looking for both overbought or oversold conditions, as well as a crossover to signal the trade.

+ Traders may have also looked at other forms of technical analysis to maximize their odds of a successful trade.

+ For example, traders looking at the example chart may have considered the significant bearish volume on the day that the signal occurred or the candlestick patterns leading up to the trading signal when making their decision.

+ These insights could also be used to avoid making less profitable trades suggested by the KST indicator.

☣️ How to use the Know Sure Thing indicator? ☣️

 + Know Sure Thing continuously oscillates above or below the Zero Line.

+The reading is positive when the KST is above the Zero Line and it indicates that it is favoring the bulls.

+ The reading is negative when the KST indicator is below the Zero Line and it shows that the momentum is favoring the bears.

+ The positive readings show positive weighted and smooth values of the rate of change and increasing prices of the financial assets.

+ The negative readings illustrate the downtrend with falling prices of the stock. 

+ The basic centerline and signal line crossovers are the strongest signals provided by the Know Sure Thing indicator.

+ Traders can really capitalize on this strength. They should search for signal line crossover after witnessing the basic centerline crossover.

+ They should also detect the general direction of the trend as well. As a general rule, the KST ascends when it is above the signal line and it descends when below the signal line.

+ An ascending and negative Know Sure Thing line indicates the weakening of the downside momentum. A descending and positive Know Sure Thing line shows the waning upside momentum.

+ Moreover, bullish and bearish divergence signals are also possible but they cannot be used every time.

+ The chartists are advised to be selective before using them. They are also encouraged to experiment with different settings because one size may not fulfill the requirements of the traders.

+ They can also experiment with moving average settings and try mixing and matching the rate of change settings to maximize their odds of success. 
   
☢️ The pros and cons of the Know Sure Thing indicator ☢️ 

✅ Pros ✅

+ The KST indicator was invented to make interpretation of the rate of change’s readings easy for the trader.

+ It has several other advantages that make it one of the most efficient indicators among the technical analysis tools. 

+ Its response rate is comparatively higher than any other momentum oscillator.

+ It is a versatile indicator that can be used on all timeframes ranging from short term to long term.

+ It serves multiple purposes such as to seek divergences, signal line crossovers, and centerline crossovers.

+ Its basic centerline and signal line crossovers are considered the strongest signals to measure the strength of a trend

⛔ Cons ⛔

+ There is no doubt that the Know Sure Thing oscillator is one of the best trading tools, yet it has certain disadvantages as well. 

+ It may give false signals like any other indicator.

+ It requires the assistance of other indicators to confirm the validation of a trend

๐Ÿ“ถ Conclusion ๐Ÿ“ถ

+ The Know Sure Thing oscillator is considered among the most reliable and user-friendly momentum oscillators.

+ It captures four different price cycles as it is based on the rate of change of four different time periods.

+ The indicator makes every time period smooth through a moving average.

+ It is a powerful indicator that has the potential to help you maximize your trading profit. Technical analysts suggest maximizing with different settings to enhance the chances of maximizing gain.

+ However, the default setting of the KST is recommended for novice traders who are at the very beginning of their trading career.

+ If the price of an asset is decreasing but the Know Sure Thing oscillator is ascending, it is a strong signal of a bullish divergence.

+ If the price of an asset is increasing but the Know Sure Thing indicator is descending, it is a strong signal of bearish divergence.

+ However, the experts emphasize not to rely on a single indicator. The Know Sure Thing should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools to get accurate signals. 

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#tradersheavenlearning #THL #tradersheaven #knowsurethingstrategy 

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Friday, July 2, 2021

Crab and Deep Crab Pattern: HARMONIC PATTERN

 CRAB and DEEP CRAB : Harmonic Pattern
(reading time = 8 minutes)

๐Ÿ“ถ Crab & Deep Crab Harmonic Pattern: ๐Ÿ“ถ

+ The Crab & Deep Crab harmonic patterns are reversal patterns

+ There are 4 legged patterns

+ The crab pattern follows strict fibonacci ratios

+ The deep crab pattern also follows fib ratios (but with a slight variation)

+ It is a harmonic pattern that helps traders predict when the price of a stock is about to change direction.

+ The pattern can be used to predict either a bullish or bearish reversal depending on the orientation.

๐Ÿ”ฎ  The Crab Harmonic Pattern ๐Ÿ”ฎ
+ The pattern follows some specific features
The pattern was discovered in 2001. 

+ Just as it is with other harmonic patterns, this pattern is a reversal pattern. Therefore, we have the bearish crab pattern that indicates a bearish reversal in price and a bullish crab pattern that indicates a bullish reversal in price. 

+ Just as it is with other patterns, there’s a naming convention for every leg in the formation.

+ Beginning with the swing low or high, every leg is marked by a letter. There are five swing points named as X, A, B, C and D.

+ In some patterns, you will only find four (X, A, B and C).

+ The crab pattern is different because of its sharp movement in the CD leg. 

+ This is usually a 1.618 percent Fibonacci retracement of the XA leg, the previous part of the crab pattern.
๐Ÿ“ถ Rules  ๐Ÿ“ถ

+ Some rules that have to be followed to confirm a crab pattern, such as:

+ Following the XA leg in price, the point B is a retracement of between 38.2 to 61.8 percent. 

+ This retracement should ideally be lower than 61.8 percent. 

+ The AB leg, is a counter trend move to the initial leg

+ After point B, the next leg, BC, can run up to 38.2 to 88.6 percent Fibonacci ratios of the AB leg (C should never go beyond point A)

+ Following the BC leg, price reverses once again, with the CD leg being the longest and reversing between 161.8 percent of the XA leg and an extreme 224.0 to 361.8 percent extension of the BC leg

+ Then you should wait for confirmation
After the crab pattern confirms these factors, a position can be taken after the CD leg is made.

+ Even though you will not notice the CD leg is always reversing close to 161.8 percent, if price action starts to stall and such a reversal begins to happen, it can be a high probability trade setup.

+ It is always better to wait until point D is made and then take an appropriate short or long position.

+ Stop-losses are placed at the low or the high of D, and targets are typically points A or B in the pattern.

⚠️ Bearish Crab Patterns ⚠️

+ The Deep Crab harmonic pattern
The deep crab is a variation of the normal crab pattern. 

+ It is still a 5-point extension, and it still has the endpoint, D, at the 161.8 percent extension of XA, but the little difference is in the AB=CD importance.

+ The most distinguishing component of this pattern is the importance of the particular 88.6 percent retracement point of B.

+ Together with the crab pattern; the deep crab pattern presents an especially extended and long move towards D.

๐Ÿ“ถ Bullish & Bearish Deep Crab patterns ๐Ÿ“ถ

+ Major differences between the Crab and Deep Crab patterns

+ Projection of the BC leg is not as extreme as the crab
B has to be at least an 88.6 percent retracement. Common to move more than 88.6 percent retracement level not above/below X

+ AB=CD pattern variations are more vital in the deep crab pattern

+ The BC leg is a minimum of 224 percent but can extend to 361.8 percent

๐Ÿ“ถ How to identify the Crab & Deep Crab patterns? ๐Ÿ“ถ

+ It can be hard to be familiar with the Fibonacci retracement and extension values in a crab pattern. 

+ Also, it can become tiring when using the Fibonacci tool to measure each leg while drawing the crab pattern.

+ Aside from the main rules of the crab pattern, traders can look for the following signs in the market, by analyzing the lows and highs and simply observing the price movement.

+ BC leg mostly exists within the XA leg
C is a higher low as opposed to A in a bearish crab pattern or C is the lower high as opposed to A in a bullish crab pattern
B makes a lower high when compared to X in a bearish crab pattern, or B makes a higher low when compared to X in a bullish crab pattern

+ D is the extreme, indicating a lower low or a higher high, going beyond X

๐ŸŽฏ What does the Crab (and Deep Crab) harmonic pattern tell traders? ๐ŸŽฏ

+ Just like the butterfly, it can help traders identify when a current price move is likely getting to its end. This means traders can enter the market just as the price changes direction in the opposite way.

+ The crab and deep crab represent important overbought and oversold conditions, and reaction after completion is mostly sharp and fast.

+ It is the opinion of many analysts and traders that the crab pattern and deep crab represent some of the quickest and most profitable patterns out of all harmonic patterns.

๐Ÿ“ถ How to trade when you see the pattern๐Ÿ“ถ

๐ŸŽฏ Trading a bearish Crab pattern ๐ŸŽฏ
+ To trade a bearish crab pattern, put a short (sell) order at point D (the 161.8 percent Fibonacci extension of the XA leg).

+ Entry: Identify where the pattern will end at point D, and place your order

+ Stop-Loss: Put your stop-loss just below point D

+ Take Profit: The location of your profit target is highly subjective and depends on your objectives and market conditions. 

+ If you desire aggressive profit, place it at point A of the pattern. For a more conservative profit, place it at point B.

✅ Trading a bullish Crab pattern ✅
+ First of all, choose the crab pattern charting tool and follow all the above rules to identify the pattern. 

+ Remember that the Fibonacci ratios are very important to trade the crab pattern. 

+ If you notice the pattern on a price chart and if you find the ratios not matching with the pattern rules, it means that the pattern is not valid. So do not trade that pattern.

+ When the price action confirms the pattern, immediately enter for a buy.

+ If you are a conservative trader, ensure you wait for a couple of bullish confirmation candles before entering the trade.

+ There are four targets (X, B, C, A) to place the take-profit order in the crab pattern. 

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